The Ledger · Entry 14

Your odds of dying in a natural disaster have fallen sharply in a century

Deaths from natural disasters per 100,000 people, decadal average

8.99 in 1900
0.59 in 2020

Data: Our World in Data, based on EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain

Earthquakes, floods, droughts, and storms still strike as often as they ever did, and the number of people in harm's way keeps growing. Yet the share of us they kill has fallen a long way over the last century.

Decadal average death rate from all natural disasters, per 100,000 people, 1900 to 2020: from 8.99 to 0.59. Source: Our World in Data, based on EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain. 8.99 1900 2.51 1970 0.77 1990 0.59 2020
Source: Our World in Data, based on EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain · CC BY 4.0 · retrieved 2026-07-02. Underlying data: EM-DAT, CRED / UCLouvain.

The key rows

1900 8.99 The 1900s decade, the high end of the tracked series.
1970 2.51 The 1970s decade, the rate keeps falling.
1990 0.77 The 1990s decade, under one per hundred thousand.
2020 0.59 The 2020s decade so far, near the lowest on record.

From the record

Over the last century, death rates have fallen by more than 90%.

Hannah Ritchie, Pablo Rosado, and Max Roser Natural Disasters, Our World in Data, 2022

The reason is not calmer weather. It is forecasting, early warning, sturdier buildings, and faster rescue, all of which turn a disaster that once meant mass death into one that far more people survive. Because rare mega-events dominate the yearly numbers, this series is a decadal average, which shows the underlying trend rather than the noise.

Asked often

Are natural disasters killing fewer people than they used to?

Yes. The decadal death rate from natural disasters fell from 8.99 per 100,000 people in the 1900s to 0.59 in the 2020s, even as more people live in exposed places.

Why show a decadal average instead of yearly deaths?

Disaster deaths are dominated by rare mega-events, so single years swing wildly. Averaging by decade reveals the long-run downward trend instead of the noise.

Why have disaster deaths fallen despite population growth?

Better forecasting, early-warning systems, sturdier infrastructure, and faster emergency response have sharply cut deaths per person even as more people are exposed to hazards.

The world also got better today.

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