The Ledger · Entry 31

New HIV infections have fallen far below their peak

Estimated new HIV infections worldwide each year

3,400,000 in 1996
1,300,000 in 2024

Data: Our World in Data, based on the WHO Global Health Observatory

New HIV infections climbed through the epidemic's early years to a peak of 3,400,000 in a single year, 1996, as the virus outran the world's response. That is the high-water mark of one of the deadliest epidemics in modern history.

Estimated number of people newly infected with HIV each year, 1990 to 2024: from 2,500,000 to 1,300,000. Source: Our World in Data, based on the WHO Global Health Observatory. 3,400,000 1996 2,500,000 2005 1,900,000 2015 1,300,000 2024
Source: Our World in Data, based on the WHO Global Health Observatory · CC BY 4.0 · retrieved 2026-07-16. Underlying data: World Health Organization, Global Health Observatory (GHO).

The key rows

1996 3,400,000 The peak, as the epidemic outran the response.
2005 2,500,000 Treatment and prevention begin to bend the curve.
2015 1,900,000 Down by nearly half from the peak.
2024 1,300,000 The lowest annual total in over thirty years.

Since then, prevention, testing, and treatment that makes a suppressed person unable to transmit the virus have brought new infections down every year, to 1,300,000 in 2024. That is real progress, and it is still far above the target of ending AIDS as a public-health threat. The decline has also been slower than for AIDS deaths, so prevention remains the harder half of the fight.

Asked often

Are new HIV infections falling?

Yes. New HIV infections fell from a peak of 3,400,000 in 1996 to 1,300,000 in 2024, though the decline has been slower than the fall in AIDS deaths.

Why do new infections matter alongside deaths?

Deaths have fallen faster than new infections because treatment keeps people alive. Driving down new infections is the harder task, and the one that will actually end the epidemic.

The world also got better today.

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